A ban on new water consents could threaten Hawke's Bay's growth, and its brand as a place where "Great things grow".
This has been the warning from Hawke's Bay's key primary sector industries, in light of the Hawke's Bay Regional Council signalling a possible ban on new water allocation from the Heretaunga Aquifer.
It will be looking to decline any new consents for groundwater takes as new science, conducted by the TANK group, has shown the volume of water being taken was at the "limit of what is environmentally acceptable".
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By law, the council still has to receive and consider new consent applications. However it hoped potential applicants would wait to lodge consents.
Given Hawke's Bay's key primary sector industries rely heavily on water, Hawke's Bay Chamber of Commerce chief executive Wayne Walford worried if new consents were not granted this could affect growth, which would in turn affect the region's brand.
"'Great things grow here' is based on the magic of this region and that we can grow things. We can't do that without water," he said.
"It appears to be a block ... anything that threatens employment or commercial development is a red flag."
Concern about impacts on long-term growth was echoed by Hawke's Bay Fruitgrowers Association president Lesley Wilson, who said if horticulture-suitable land could not get a consent, "that would certainly deter new investment in that land".
The ban also meant if land suitable for horticulture had not been consented with enough allocation for this activity, they would have trouble getting a new consent.
She did not think current development would be stopped by this move, given most land earmarked for horticulture already had an appropriate consent. They were working with growers to make sure that the water they were allocated was being used as efficiently as possible.
"As an industry we're constantly striving to improve our systems because we want to look after our water as much as possible and we want to have growth along with that."
Hawke's Bay Winegrowers deputy chairman and TANK stakeholder Xan Harding said their immediate main concern would be ensuring any changes in water allocation for current consent holders was a fair process.
Not all water allocated is actually used, so TANK group is developing rules to manage existing takes to ensure environmental effects are appropriately managed, and existing investment in water use is accounted for.
Mr Harding said looking longer term, there was concern about industry growth given a lot of this would happen on the Heretaunga Plains.
"Long term we want to make sure we have a path toward growth, and it does include the ability somehow to access new water for irrigation for new development."
Although this "ban" looks set to last until the TANK water management framework has been established, the exact timeframe looks uncertain.
Mr Harding said although TANK's timeframe was for a draft plan change by the end of 2017, this could be pushed over several months as resources - for both council, and TANK stakeholders- were currently directed at a Water Conservation Order.
"We might be looking at a year of relative uncertainty but I'd hope it wouldn't be more than that," he said. "In the short term we can probably live with some uncertainty for new developments, but we need to get it sorted as soon as possible so people know where they're going."
Hawke's Bay Regional chairman Rex Graham said he did not know when new consents might be granted again, as TANK had to acquire more information on how it wanted to handle the situation.
He disputed this move could harm the region's brand - "I would have thought it would have enhanced the Hawke's Bay brand. The reason TANK has suggested this is to protect our environment.
"The more advanced the industry becomes, as the world becomes, these things are becoming significant. People will not in the future buy produce from countries where they're not looking after their environment."
Although agriculture was not as affected - given most sheep, beef, and dairy farming uses the Ruataniwha aquifer system - Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay president Will Foley said this was an incentive to be smarter, and more efficient with water use.
"With what we've been doing the systems have been coming under pressure. We can't expect to just keep drawing more and more water out with no consequence."
There were options for future water allocation being explored by the TANK Group - from augmenting stream flows, through greater water-use efficiency, or through a storage scheme.